Retail Sales Rebound, Beating Forecast!

By STEPHANIE CLIFFORD from NyTimes.com

Americans are splurging as though it’s 2007 again.  Shoppers spent more money this holiday season than even before therecession, according to preliminary retail data released on Monday.

After a 6 percent free fall in 2008 and a 4 percent uptick last year, retail spending rose 5.5 percent in the 50 days before Christmas, exceeding even the more optimistic forecasts, according to MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse, which tracks retail spending.

The rise was seen in just about every retail category. Apparel led the way, with an increase of 11.2 percent. Jewelry was up 8.4 percent, and luxury goods like handbags and expensive department-store clothes increased 6.7 percent. There was even a slight increase in purchases of home furniture, which had four consecutive years of declining sales. The figures include in-store and online sales, and exclude autos.

“For the past year or two, when I’ve seen growth in one area, it seems to come at the expense of another,” said Michael McNamara, vice president for research and analysis at SpendingPulse. “Here, things are actually all moving in the right direction.”

The MasterCard data suggests that the pre-Christmas sales increase was the biggest in five years. Spending reached about $584.3 billion, compared with $566.3 billion in that period in 2007.  The 5.5 percent rise beat even the retail industry’s projections. The National Retail Federation was expecting a 3.3 percent improvement, and the ShopperTrak research service anticipated a 4 percent increase (both excluded automobiles, gas and restaurants).

“In the face of 10 percent unemployment and persistent housing woes, the American consumer has single-handedly picked himself off the mat, brushed his troubles off and strapped the U.S. economy on his back,” Craig R. Johnson, the president of the consulting firm Customer Growth Partners, wrote in an e-mail.

Stocks have soared to their highest levels in more than two years, giving those with higher incomes greater freedom to spend. Luxury stores like Tiffany and Saks Fifth Avenue, for example, have been posting big sales increases.  Pent-up demand is also showing up among middle-income shoppers: in government surveys, consumers have been expressing rising confidence for the last five months.

The luxury segment started heating up in late summer, said Joel Bines, a director in the global retail practice at AlixPartners.  “That trickled down to the upper- to midtier consumer, and then the midtier consumer,” he said. Once the luxury market stabilized, confidence seems to have spread, “in the media, at work, with your friends,” he said.

The sales figures were bolstered by improved inventory controls among many retailers. After two years of heavy discounting, retailers cut the number of products they held in stock rooms, in an attempt to train shoppers to buy items at full price rather than wait for sales. The strategy seems to have worked.  Shoppers browsing through after-Christmas sales said in interviews that they were still hunting for deals, but they were also feeling that the economy was stabilizing after three years of merciless uncertainty.

Read the full article here.


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Posted on: 1/4/2011 at 12:13 PM
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